This Season

[growler]

This has been one of the most exciting off seasons that I can remember, and it is fun to savor the recruiting successes of the coaching staff, but now I want to know more about this upcoming season. Does anybody have a good overview of our MWC rivals and how we stack up against them? Presumably BYU will go in as the favorites to win it all, but how does the rest of the league look?

[Remus Lupin]

Not sure. Athlon predicts us 4th, with an NIT bid.

[Lobodawg92]

Growler,

I have been thinking along the same lines. Maybe you, or someone else should set up a poll as to where we will finish this year(perhaps top 3, middle 3, bottom 3). I am thinking top 3. We had talent last year and did not lose a lot of guys. On top of that, we have more of a presence in the middle. Alford manages to keep the chemistry good, it could be a great year!

Remus, you should walk on, I hear you are sometimes a beast on the boards! ;-)

Go Lobos!

[Remus Lupin]

Beast on the boards, I like it. Maybe I'll change my login name. :Afun)

IMHO a little more help on the inside was the only thing missing last year. AJ never really produced as expected. If he had, things could have ended up much differently. True, chemistry was a problem with last year's team, but it didn't seem to be the main reason for all those close losses.

On paper, we have legitimate bigs this year and we have virtually the rest of last year's squad. I predict a third place finish. Not sure how SA teams do in conference tournaments, but an NCAA birth is not out of the question.

[judas_priest]

I think it will be quite hard to predict the Lobos for this year. We have new coaches and a lot of new players. We have JC transfers. We have Giddens, and the tension between his ability and his (heretofore) lack of self-discipline. I don't think the top 3, middle 3, bottom 3 is all that useful. A close 4th and a distant 6th in the same grouping? I think the poll should be by range. 1st through 3rd, 2nd through 4th, etc. If those are the choices, I pick 3rd (that is, 2nd through 4th).

I think the raw talent is there to challenge for 1st, but I think too much development and coaching is necessary for us to make it, but a strong finish and a conference tournament championship would be more likely.

[Roob]

Good point JP. I pick 4th (3rd thru 5th). That would be a big jump from 9th. Getting all these JUCO's and Diarese and the returning players to gel in a few months is asking too much. In the scrimmage the JUCO guys were still out of shape, so I was not able to develop any warm and fuzzies about their ability to elevate us to the next level, this year. Adjustment to D1 sometimes can take a year. Also the chemistry has to be developed - no guarantee of that happening this year. As much as I'd like to see us win the whole thing, the more likely scenario is a big improvement to 4th place. Next year we'll get a lot of new players who have played together quite a bit before they set foot on campus. I honestly expect a breakthrough into the top 2-3 when that crop of recruits arrives. And by their sophomore seasons, if they stay intact and we add add'l top recruits, that's when I will have high expectations for an MWC title. 2009/2010 season is when SA and staff will make their mark.

[loopsups3]

I think the MWC is very difficult to predict this year. Factor in a few things, coaching changes, players leaving/ signing due to those coaching changes. Who the heck knows. I believe we have an excellent shot at a top 4 finish, as always this year will depend on chemistry and how well these players come together. The only real IMPACT player we lost from last years squad is A.J. However no telling how well, or how much PT Derek, Sean and David would have got this year. ITs all gonna lay on team chemistry. As we have seen with the past Richie's JC recruits had a hard time adjusting (with the exception of Alfred Neale) so only time will tell if Alford and Co. can get these guys ready for D1 ball.

[Lobodawg92]

I think you are right JP, that would be a better poll. I am thinking 3-4 finish in conference. It is a long season, and with so much coming back, 2nd would not suprise me at all.

Go Loobs!

[LIDOakaLJT]

Call me "Homer" but I think we can compete for the league crown THIS YEAR!!! Like LoboDawg said, we have the majority of our talent returning from a team that competed well in most of the MWC games (hell, we gave "SWEET 16" UNLV a good run for their money in both games) and that was without strong post presence, lack of true team-chemistry, and (we all know it) a lame duck coaching staff.

I agree that it's tough to predict what'll happen regarding team chemistry, etc but we cannot forget that 5 of the MWC teams are in the same boat (with new coaching staffs and new players) which basically puts the other 4 teams in a situation of a learning curve as well. NO ONE will truly know what to expect from the other conference teams....as such, it's a whole new ball game in the MWC!!!

Lastly, when it comes to the conference tournament, I think we've got a leg up in that department! Our coaching staff hasn't shown us anything here yet but the fact that Coach Alford was able to win 2 conference tourney titles in the BIG 10 speaks volumes:

http://golobos.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/alford_steve00.html

"...Alford led his 2001-02 Iowa squad to 19 wins and a top-10 national ranking through the first half of the season. The Hawkeyes made a second straight run through the Big Ten Tournament. Ninth-seeded Iowa opened the tourney with an 87-72 win over Purdue before defeating Wisconsin 58-56 in the quarterfinals and Indiana 62-60 in the semifinals, defeating two of the co-Big Ten champions on back-to-back days. Ohio State took control over the final 10 minutes of the championship game to keep Iowa from winning its second straight tournament title.

With a young and inexperienced team that was forced to adjust to the loss of two key players, Alford guided his 2000-01 Iowa team to the Big Ten Tournament title. Playing as a six seed, Iowa won four games in four days to earn the conference's automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Once in the tournament, the Hawkeyes advanced to the second round before falling to second-seeded Kentucky..."

[Lobodawg92]

LIDO you homer! I knew there was something about you I liked!

[LIDOakaLJT]

"D'oh!!!" (insert pic of Homer Simpson here... :D)


GO LOBOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!

[Roob]

LIDO you homer! I knew there was something about you I liked!

Lido is a serious attention whore. First he tries the "why won't people PM me?" approach. Then he tries the Amber Alert aproach, but no, that wasn't good enough. Now he's moved on to predicting a league championship for UNM this year. Oy Vey!!! :eek:

[loborick]

There are a lot of variables for this season, but we have some talent and experience coming back, some size and talent coming in and a new coaching staff with a new perspective. Also, the fan base has a new perspective also and will be louder than they have been in years.

Could we compete for the conference championship? If the returnees have raised their talent level and if the newcomers can come in and contribute and if SA shows he can coach...why not? I don't see us falling into the bottom half of the conference. I think the BB season is going to be as crazy as the FB season has been.

[swerve3030]

The main thing is Tony D and J.R. have big seasons. Our big men need to control the paint for us to have a chance to win the conference. I have high hopes that we can gell early. Chemistry is going to be the main thing for this group. We have all the peices in place to make a run to the NCAA's. This is going to be a big year.

[geezer]

I'm not that big on chemistry. I AM big on execution on both ends of the court. As for missing elements last year, height. I AM big on having some height to balance out both sides of the equation. The next missing element was defense. IMHO our defense was CRAP(can't really appreciate pressure) last year. I think Coach Alford brings our defense up to true LOBO standards this year. I guess if you mix good coaching, the right mix of players, great defense and aggressive offense, that might equal chemistry.

Oh, and don't forget to put it all in the PIT and turn up the heat. A recipe for success.

[growler]

I guess when I started this thread, I wondered if anybody had a good feel for how the rest of the league is shaping up and how we stack up against specific teams, but I guess with all the new coaches it is really hard to say. I know that there are magazines with previews, but sometimes those aren't very accurate and are written by somebody out east who hasn't even seen the teams play. Therefore, I've started doing my own research and here is what I found out about last year's conference champ, BYU.

They lose 3 starters from last season including Keena Young (17.4 ppg), Jimmy Balderson (8.1 ppg), and Austin Ainge (7.9 ppg). Other significant contributors that are gone include Mike Rose (6.8 ppg) and Rashaun Broadus (6.1 ppg). That is alot of firepower for them to replace, so I don't see how they start the year as the automatic conference favorite. However, they do return a couple of top-notch starters in juniors Trent Plaisted (12.6 ppg, 6-9, 2nd team all-MWC) and Lee Cummard (9.4 ppg, 6-6, 3rd team all-MWC). They also have last year's MWC FOY, Jonathan Tavernari (6.5 ppg, 6-6). These three should form the nucleus of an otherwise very young team, although there are 3 returning role-player seniors including Vuk Ivanovic (2.2 ppg, 6-10), Ben Murdock (1.5 ppg, 6-2), and Sam Burgess (3.6 ppg, 6-3). Ivanovic and Burgess seem likely to get increased PT this season.

There will be 8 new faces for the cougars including 6 freshmen. JC transfer Lamont Morgan (5-10) appears to be slotted for significant time at the PG position. Transfer Archie Rose (6-4, Lee College) is more of a mystery and I wonder if he is related to head coach Dave Rose. The freshman include a bevy of guards including Jimmey Fredette (6-2), Michael Loyd (6-2), Nick Martineau (5-11), and Matt Pinegar (6-0). The gems in that batch are Fredette, who is a prolific scorer from New York, and Pinegar, who was highly recruited out of high school and is just returned from a 2-year LDS mission. My guess is that both of those guys will find time in the rotation. Rounding out their freshman class are post players James Anderson (6-11, also just returned from an LDS mission) and Chris Collinsworth (6-9). Collinsworth was also heavily recruited and seems likely to make some impact.

In terms of how the Lobos stack up, here is my very uniformed analysis (living out of state and not having the opportunity to see many games). It seems to me that we should have a strong advantage at the guard spots (particularly PG), and that we should be looking to pressure the perimeter when we play BYU. Keeping the ball out of the hands of Plaisted as much as possible should be key. Pegues, Harris, and Faris will have their work cut out in the paint, but if they can clog things up and keep the cougars from getting offensive boards, I like our chances. On the wings/SF positions I don't see why Danridge and Giddens can't outdo Cummard and Tavernari. The cougars do have the advantage of continuity in 3rd year coach Dave Rose, but if Alford can get our guys playing tough defense, then we should certainly win in the Pit and give BYU all they can handle or more in Provo.

[Bret]

Here is what I think:

Team goes as J.R goes.
J.R. turns in a MWC POY performance, (Of which he is capable), and UNM should finish no less than 2nd.

J.R plays average, and has the same season as last year, UNM Finishes 4th or 5th

[LostLobo]

Here is what I think:

Team goes as J.R goes.
J.R. turns in a MWC POY performance, (Of which he is capable), and UNM should finish no less than 2nd.

J.R plays average, and has the same season as last year, UNM Finishes 4th or 5th

I can't disagree with that, but if my life has taught me anything, it's never to rely on unreliable people.
I think Gary and Prentice are the key to the season. Even though people focus on the lack of a big man last season, I actually believe our biggest weakness was point guard. If Gary or an improved Prentice can solve that problem, then that allows the addition of the inside players to matter and they can win some of the close games they lost last season.

[Yakkacat25]

I can't disagree with that, but if my life has taught me anything, it's never to rely on unreliable people.
I think Gary and Prentice are the key to the season. Even though people focus on the lack of a big man last season, I actually believe our biggest weakness was point guard. If Gary or an improved Prentice can solve that problem, then that allows the addition of the inside players to matter and they can win some of the close games they lost last season.

This team goes as JR goes. If JR stays in Coach Alford's good graces this team can go a long way. JR is UNM's most talented player...and potentiallt best player. Prentice proved to be steady last season. JR is the leader of this team and needs to act accordingly. His attitude last season had a lingering affect on last years squad. Coach Alford doesn't need a distraction.

[LIDOakaLJT]

This team goes as JR goes. If JR stays in Coach Alford's good graces this team can go a long way. JR is UNM's most talented player...and potentiallt best player. Prentice proved to be steady last season. JR is the leader of this team and needs to act accordingly. His attitude last season had a lingering affect on last years squad. Coach Alford doesn't need a distraction.


To give JR some credit, I think he's already started to work towards that positive leadership role. He could have easily publicly balked regarding the decision that he stay behind while the rest of the team went to the Bahamas. He stayed behind to ensure the student in "student-athlete" wouldn't keep him off the floor this coming year...that, to me, shows maturity.

JR may be a jokester and show-off at times but he's no dummy ---- I think he realizes he's got a golden opportunity this year. He'll be the senior leader on a team with a coaching staff that's creating buzz around the country; there will be talk around the country about New Mexico (especially when Coach Knight comes to the PIT for the Tech game). JR will have the opportunity to show the country what he's capable of doing in the future in the NBA --- however, only if he stays out of the doghouse and works his tail off.

That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it..... :D


GO LOBOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !

[Yakkacat25]

To give JR some credit, I think he's already started to work towards that positive leadership role. He could have easily publicly balked regarding the decision that he stay behind while the rest of the team went to the Bahamas. He stayed behind to ensure the student in "student-athlete" wouldn't keep him off the floor this coming year...that, to me, shows maturity.

JR may be a jokester and show-off at times but he's no dummy ---- I think he realizes he's got a golden opportunity this year. He'll be the senior leader on a team with a coaching staff that's creating buzz around the country; there will be talk around the country about New Mexico (especially when Coach Knight comes to the PIT for the Tech game). JR will have the opportunity to show the country what he's capable of doing in the future in the NBA --- however, only if he stays out of the doghouse and works his tail off.

That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it..... :D


GO LOBOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !

I agree LIDO...I'm referring to JR continuing on his Behavior. I said if he stays in Coach Alford's good graces which he's currently in. JR has a great personality...that's the part about him you have to like. JR has done great since Coach Alford has arrived. And I really hope he keeps it up.

[ArkansasLobo]

I agree with all of it! That way I can't be wrong. So when it happens this year, and you know it's gonna happen, I can always say....see I told you so!!!!

[Bloo]

I agree with Lost that the point play needs to improve, but I think what an improvement there means is that we come in top 4. I think improvement at the point AND JR living up to or at least approximating his potential is how we end up top 2.

I think both of these things have a realistic chance of happening if our post game keeps defenses honest. So, in essence, that's the third key.

[Protege1212]

I will be interested to see about the type of pressure our offense places on opposing teams and I agree with the assesment of point guard play. Last season a glaring weakness was the inablity to force teams to adjust to what we were doing on the offensive end, and the lack of FT attempts. IMO, it is most often the point guard who will initiate opportunity for both, whether through penetration or adequate passing that puts another player in a position to be aggresive on O.

[Lobodawg92]

This team goes as JR goes. If JR stays in Coach Alford's good graces this team can go a long way. JR is UNM's most talented player...and potentiallt best player. Prentice proved to be steady last season. JR is the leader of this team and needs to act accordingly. His attitude last season had a lingering affect on last years squad. Coach Alford doesn't need a distraction.

I would have totally agreed with that statement last year. Unfortunately, there were chemistry issues (nice way of putting it), and blame to be placed on several. While I hope JR has matured and is 100% team this year ( I am rooting for him), should issues arise, I think we have enough talent to be competitive w/o him. Perhaps not dominate, but I still think competitive. If all the pieces in the puzzle fit, and JR goes really team, heck, no reason we can't win it all.

I think what we would all really like to see is a Danny Granger type of heart and attitude from JR. Just my personal opinion. I think he has Danny Granger type of ability. Really, I guess I am ready for some basketball, and let's leave the drama behind! :>:>

Go Lobos!

[Yakkacat25]

I would have totally agreed with that statement last year. Unfortunately, there were chemistry issues (nice way of putting it), and blame to be placed on several. While I hope JR has matured and is 100% team this year ( I am rooting for him), should issues arise, I think we have enough talent to be competitive w/o him. Perhaps not dominate, but I still think competitive. If all the pieces in the puzzle fit, and JR goes really team, heck, no reason we can't win it all.

I think what we would all really like to see is a Danny Granger type of heart and attitude from JR. Just my personal opinion. I think he has Danny Granger type of ability. Really, I guess I am ready for some basketball, and let's leave the drama behind! :>:>

Go Lobos!

The team could do well...but with JR the team could go farther with him.

[Burro lobo]

I still think/hope JR sees this as his ride to the NBA, the better this team does, with JRs help, the higher his standing in the draft. He has everything to gain and even more to lose. I'd love to see him as a lottery pick again!!!

[Duke]

Yup.... I agree that the team will go as far as JR can take them.

But the biggest factor for me this year is gonna be COACHING.
We had too many defiiciencies last year to single any out.
We essentially have the same core team back, with a little more experience, some more athleticism, but a still unproven inside presence. Sounds a lot like the start of last year, no?

How far we go depends on whether the coaches have just performed a cosmetic face-lift, or cut out the cancer and got the patient off of life-support. Anything would be better than dead-last, and the pigtail game memory...........

Having said that.........4th wouldn't be out of the question. Too many unanswered questions........
But I have tons of faith in this staff and I'm ready for some solid hoops. Let's do this.

[loborick]

Yup.... I agree that the team will go as far as JR can take them.

But the biggest factor for me this year is gonna be COACHING.
We had too many defiiciencies last year to single any out.
We essentially have the same core team back, with a little more experience, some more athleticism, but a still unproven inside presence. Sounds a lot like the start of last year, no?

How far we go depends on whether the coaches have just performed a cosmetic face-lift, or cut out the cancer and got the patient off of life-support. Anything would be better than dead-last, and the pigtail game memory...........

Having said that.........4th wouldn't be out of the question. Too many unanswered questions........
But I have tons of faith in this staff and I'm ready for some solid hoops. Let's do this.

I agree that coaching will be a huge factor. And we don't really know what kind of coach Alford is. He has had success, but he has had some rough times also. He has done a great job recruiting in the short time he has been here. But the proof will come when he's finally on the sideline at the Pit.

[yooperlobo]

With all his pre-season hype, J.R. was a posterboy for the disfuntional. If this coaching staff can bring him and the rest of the team around, and get J.R. to the big time like predicted, they will be setting themselves up for years to come.:>:>

[PHILLY_1982]

J.R. has to be thank ful for the coaching change. SA will help his chances of getting drafted more than he would have with McKay.

It's kinda like yet another fresh start. He's a very fortunate guy to have so many chances.

Let's hope he gets it right this time.

[LoneLobo]

...so goes the season!

All this talk about JR leads me to think back to the days when Ruben was our only threat. We're far from that one-man show this time around.

I say our success really depends on the play of Tony.

This is Tony's last year to shine and I say he rises to the challenge. Just like the board is transfixed on JR, everyone else will be also. And that will leave plenty of opportunities for Tony to shine. He'll need to become the go to guy we all know he can be. He's carried this team at times over the last thee years so he's got a lot invested. I say he puts up his best numbers yet, averaging in the high teens in scoring while JR may go higher. They should be quite the scoring tandem causing fits for other coaches. One falters and the other is ready to pick up the slack.

JR should get the majority of attention from other teams but he'll get his points and boards regardless as he exhibited last season. I think JR will take advantage of his opportunity this year to learn from Coach Alford, a man who has done what JR could only hope to do. JR didn't have that in McKay. JR can now be humbled by his coach, something McKay lacked the presence or the pedigree to do. I see JR responding much as we hoped he would last year. He should turn in a MWC POY performance.

Obviously JR is a huge key to whether we have a solid season, but if we want a breakout year, it'll depend on how Tony responds . I say we're in for quite a show! :>

[DaddyLongStrokes]

I agree with one thing....the change in coaching should make (I hope) the biggest difference in the eventual outcome of the season. I don't know HOW many times last year, the 'bo's would be in the middle of a run (either comeback or just pulling away from someone in a close game) that it seemed like the staff would TAKE OUT THE PLAYER THAT WAS GIVING THE RUN THE MOST FUEL! I didn't understand it then, and I will not understand it in the future, but my hope is that with a new staff (do I dare say better? No disrespect to the former regime, but yes, BETTER STAFF) that these perceived errors, in MY book at least, are not repeated, and the Lobos will be able to take advantage of all the OTHER new coaches in the MWC.