The Vegas Invitational home court edge

[dcrowley]

I had been wanting to do this for quite some time, but I finally found some time and did it. Every year, Ken Pomeroy does this simulation for all of the conference tournaments and it's called a "log5" analysis after the equation used. I know Vegas has an advantage in the tournament playing at home but I have never seen anything that actually quantifies it. It probably varies somewhat from year to year, too. Anyway, I wrote a program to do the log5 analysis (10,000 conference tournament Monte Carlo simulations) and I ran it with Las Vegas having a home court advantage and WITHOUT a home court advantage to compare the results and help us quantify the advantage given to Vegas.

I have the teams seeded 1-8 in the order they appear. The first column is odds to win first round, then second round, and the finals. Here are the results for this using current ratings:

WITH Vegas home court advantage:

UNM 9134 7549 3900
UNLV 8860 6860 4468
SDSU 5334 1586 570
TCU 3881 668 135
CSU 6119 1509 427
WYO 4666 1226 417
BSU 1140 328 49
AFA 866 274 34

Now WITHOUT Vegas home court advantage:

UNM 9144 7580 5137
UNLV 8261 5389 2588
SDSU 5367 2250 748
TCU 3748 622 163
CSU 6252 1544 568
WYO 4633 1904 650
BSU 1739 457 85
AFA 856 254 61

So in this scenario, Vegas gains roughly a 20% edge and we lose about 12%.


Now, I don't know exactly how Ken Pomeroy calculates the home court advantage so the odds that I'm using when simulating Vegas at home may not be *exactly* what he would use but they're pretty close.

Thoughts?

[WeAre]

Given those odds, give me UNLV in the second round :)

The advantage is obvious, but the money the conference generates by it being in Vegas is understandable why it is there.

[Digital Lobo]

UNLV has only won 3 out of the 9 conference tournaments played there. STDSU has matched that with 3 victories. Until the Lobos can get past the second round, I'm not sure that we have too much too worry about. Just saying.

[PTR]

It is what it is. The MWC tried to move the tourney to Denver and the atmosphere and attendance sucked. Like Digital Lobo stated, UNLV has only won the tourney on their home floor 33 percent of the time. I'm not saying I'm a proponent of the Vegas Invitational, but it's the best option to promote attendance and provide fans with decent accommodations, cheap flights and quality entertainment.

[AceAndTwo]

It's going to Dallas next year. So enjoy.

[SpanaBaller]

It's going to Dallas next year. So enjoy.

Great back to an NBA town that doesn't care about the MWC-CUSA with crowds of 6,000 or less
And for entertainment/tourism aspect we all can go to the movies on Friday night. Maybe go to the bar and they make you go to bed at 2am since they close the bars at that time
And as far as hotel. Say goodbye to $40 weekday rates in a top notch resort like we have in Vegas. More like the $150 per night we saw in OKC

I'll believe it when I see it.

[aer]

This year is a good example of how things heavily favor UNLV. For as bad as they've been playing on the road they could be bumped on the first round if it was an away game for them. Instead they have a very good chance winning it this year on their home court.

[MRLobo]

I know UNLV has only won 3 times but how many times have they been to the finals?

[Digital Lobo]

I know UNLV has only won 3 times but how many times have they been to the finals?

7 times. Like I wrote earlier in this thread there is no doubt that it is an advantage. However, the fact that they won less than 50% of the time that they appeared in the finals speaks to the fact that they are not invincible in the Pit West errr the Thomas and Mack.

[lobodude]

7 times. Like I wrote earlier in this thread there is no doubt that it is an advantage. However, the fact that they won less than 50% of the time that they appeared in the finals speaks to the fact that they are not invincible in the Pit West errr the Thomas and Mack.

Weebles easily have the best record overall in the Vegas Invite, without ever having a regular season that justifies giving them that advantage on a silver platter. We shouldn't look just at "finals." For example, UNM and TCU have both lost to the Weebles in overtime in early rounds of the Vegas Invite when the Weebles would have lost both games on a neutral court and never even get anywhere near the finals.

[Digital Lobo]

Weebles easily have the best record overall in the Vegas Invite, without ever having a regular season that justifies giving them that advantage on a silver platter. We shouldn't look just at "finals." For example, UNM and TCU have both lost to the Weebles in overtime in early rounds of the Vegas Invite when the Weebles would have lost both games on a neutral court and never even get anywhere near the finals.

I am not concerned about the "Weebles". I am concerned with Lobos. And considering that we haven't even met them in the MWCT since Alford has been here, I prefer to let sleeping dogs lie.

[BoRealist]

It's a big advantage no matter how many times they tell you it's not.

I like Vegas as well Princess (errrr Spana) but I like my Lobos winning the Mountain West tournament title and making extra NCAA runs even more. By the way, you're a big boy so you don't have to go to bed at 2:00am if you don't want to. You could always take your ferocious beast for a late night walk so long as the 5.0 isn't roming about.

[BoRealist]

I am not concerned about the "Weebles". I am concerned with Lobos. And considering that we haven't even met them in the MWCT since Alford has been here, I prefer to let sleeping dogs lie.

You mean you prefer to wait until it actually affects our Lobos negatively? That won't be to late for you?

[Gonzlobo]

Is there any doubt the Macarena is a home court advantage? Wow.

[lobohowl]

It's going to Dallas next year. So enjoy.

Link???

[Digital Lobo]

You mean you prefer to wait until it actually affects our Lobos negatively? That won't be to late for you?

Considering that the Lobos have beaten the following three teams on the road in games that have or will determined the conference championship (UNLV and BYU two years ago and STDSU this season) I am not too concerned. I just hope that the Lobos can get past a TCU or a CSU in the second round.

[SharkTankd]

Just to be clear, I would never say it is not a big advantage...

That said, the home court advantage is certainly bigger this year than it has ever been in the past. UNLV is playing out of their minds at home this year. We will see if they can keep the focus in a tournament format though.

If UNLV actually gets UNM in the final (which I think is likely), I think you guys are right to be upset. Really we will both be playing for seeding at that point, and a loss will hurt us more than a win will help us (and the opposite holds true for UNM). The double edge to this sword is that everyone expects us to win, so a win doesn't help as much as a loss hurts.

[Lobofan77]

I didn't realize UNLV had been to the finals 77% of the time. That's huge.

[lobodude]

I am not concerned about the "Weebles". I am concerned with Lobos. And considering that we haven't even met them in the MWCT since Alford has been here, I prefer to let sleeping dogs lie.

I have no problem letting the past be past. I bring this up only to make the Weebles' advantage as clear as possible. Just looking at how many times they made the finals makes their advantage look smaller than it really is. We have to look at all games, including what should have been early round losses for UNLV.

[LoboDude!]

It will be in Vegas next year.....after that - who knows?

[hefman]

Well, UNLV's record in MWC tournament games is 11-5, which is clearly the best in the historical records. It does appear to be an advantage.

The true way to measure the impact is to look at how they have performed against their seeding. It should be easy enough to run a history of how each head-to-head matchup has ended, based on their respective seeding (I might try this, but not today). In other words, have they been more likely to upset a higher seed than other teams have been? If that's the case, then you have to acknowledge that it is a big advantage for them. On the other hand, if they are just making the finals because they are the 1 or 2 seed, then that would have to be expected. I admit I don't know the answer, but my gut is that they have a pretty decided advantage.

[SantaFeFan]

You mean you prefer to wait until it actually affects our Lobos negatively? That won't be to late for you?

Job 1 is to advance to the point we play them. Complaining about the Vegas invite when it has not impacted us once in the Alford years seems a bit lame. Let's hope we meet them in the finals this year and it is a real issue.

[Digital Lobo]

Job 1 is to advance to the point we play them. Complaining about the Vegas invite when it has not impacted us once in the Alford years seems a bit lame. Let's hope we meet them in the finals this year and it is a real issue.

How sweet it would be to meet and beat the Rebel in their own house and having our fans rush their court.

[lobodude]

Complaining about the Vegas invite when it has not impacted us once in the Alford years seems a bit lame.

I have no difficulty switching between being a Lobo fan and being a Mountain West fan. Don't know about the other Vegas Invite critics, but I'm not complaining about Lobos' disadvantage so much as the Weebles' unfair advantage and how it affects all the non-Weeble teams, not just its impact on the Lobos. The Lobos could beat the Weebles every time they play in Vegas and I would still be a critic of the Vegas Invite.

[liloldlobo]

I wonder what the numbers would look like if the tourney was played at the PIT.

I had been wanting to do this for quite some time, but I finally found some time and did it. Every year, Ken Pomeroy does this simulation for all of the conference tournaments and it's called a "log5" analysis after the equation used. I know Vegas has an advantage in the tournament playing at home but I have never seen anything that actually quantifies it. It probably varies somewhat from year to year, too. Anyway, I wrote a program to do the log5 analysis (10,000 conference tournament Monte Carlo simulations) and I ran it with Las Vegas having a home court advantage and WITHOUT a home court advantage to compare the results and help us quantify the advantage given to Vegas.

I have the teams seeded 1-8 in the order they appear. The first column is odds to win first round, then second round, and the finals. Here are the results for this using current ratings:

WITH Vegas home court advantage:

UNM 9134 7549 3900
UNLV 8860 6860 4468
SDSU 5334 1586 570
TCU 3881 668 135
CSU 6119 1509 427
WYO 4666 1226 417
BSU 1140 328 49
AFA 866 274 34

Now WITHOUT Vegas home court advantage:

UNM 9144 7580 5137
UNLV 8261 5389 2588
SDSU 5367 2250 748
TCU 3748 622 163
CSU 6252 1544 568
WYO 4633 1904 650
BSU 1739 457 85
AFA 856 254 61

So in this scenario, Vegas gains roughly a 20% edge and we lose about 12%.


Now, I don't know exactly how Ken Pomeroy calculates the home court advantage so the odds that I'm using when simulating Vegas at home may not be *exactly* what he would use but they're pretty close.

Thoughts?