Prediction Poll: Lobos Conference Record

**Roob** · 01-14-2009

I thought it would be fun to get some opinions on how the Lobos will do in Conference play. I took a scientific approach at assessing how many wins the Lobos will get in conference play this year. I assigned a 1.0 to a particular game if I was very certain that the Lobo's would win. A 0.7 score indicates that I think Lobo's would win 70% of the time, etc.. In any event, I assigned that probability for each of the 16 games. (UNLV and AFA are obviously 0.0 and 1.0 since the outcome for each is already known). Interestingly I came up with a total of 9.8 wins, I rounded that to 10. So my prediction is that the Lobos go 10-6 in conference play. What's your prediction on the number of wins? Or you can make some comments about the probabilities I've assigned below. Just trying to spur some thinking and dialogue on how we finish in conference play. A conference won-loss poll is provided.

LOBOS CONFERENCE SCHEDULE Expected Outcome
Saturday Jan 3rd AWAY UNLV 0.0
Saturday Jan 10th PIT AFA 1.0
Saturday Jan 17th PIT BYU 0.7
Wednes Jan 21st AWAY SDSU 0.4
Saturday Jan 24th AWAY TCU 0.3
Wednes Jan 28th PIT CSU 1.0
Saturday Jan 31st AWAY UTAH 0.3
Tuesday Feb 3rd PIT WYO 0.8
Saturday Feb 7th PIT UNLV 0.7
Wednes Feb 11th AWAY AFA 0.8
Tuesday Feb 17th AWAY BYU 0.2
Saturday Feb 21st PIT SDSU 0.7
Tuesday Feb 24th PIT TCU 0.8
Saturday Feb 28th AWAY CSU 1.0
Tuesday Mar 3rd PIT UTAH 0.7
Saturday Mar 7th AWAY Wyoming 0.4

Grand Total 9.8

Conference W-L Record 10-6

**loboaddict** · 01-14-2009

I'm thinking 9-7 or 10-6, but voted for 10-6 to be optimistic. But you never know - this team is capable of getting on a run and winning 11 or 12 conference games.

Here's how I figure it:
BYU 0-2
UNLV 1-1
AFA 2-0
SDSU 1-1
TCU 1-1
CSU 2-0
Utah 1-1
Wyoming 2-0

But I could definitely see UNM beating BYU at home, possibly beating TCU on the road, and maybe even SDSU or Utah on the road. But I could also see them losing to Wyoming on the road.

**Catcus Jim** · 01-14-2009

AFA 2-0
Wyoming 2-0
CSU 2-0
Utah 1-1
SDSU 1-1
TCU 1-1
UNLV 0-2
BYU 0-2

9 - 6 conference

**pjamj** · 01-14-2009

Undefeated! Oh, wait too late for that.

I picked 12-4. Prove me wrong Lobos, go 13-3!

**Garishwolf** · 01-14-2009

I did.

**Lobodawg92** · 01-14-2009

I picked 11-5, but I'm a homer.

Thats HOMER Garish!@&$

**wallyhopp** · 01-14-2009

realist in me has 10-6. fan in me says undefeated from here on out.. winning at places like wyoming and utah TWO years in a row when its only been done ONCE in a row for year long streaks spanning decades will be tough to manage.

2 home losses and 4 road (including the UNLV loss already) has my pick at 10-6

**Roob** · 01-14-2009

Early results with the first 28 votes in place, reveal:

86% of the voters believe that UNM will win 10 or more conference games.

93% believe UNM finishes with 9 or more conference wins.

7% believe that Lobos finish an even .500 in league play. Pomeroy doesn't have a lot of supporters on this site.

**Garishwolf** · 01-14-2009

Originally Posted by Lobodawg92

I picked 11-5, but I'm a homer.

Thats HOMER Garish!@&$

DOH................homie.............lol:Afun)

i;m a realist too,, really, a real LOBOfanatic.

**loboray** · 01-14-2009

I voted 11-5 also Dawg. Guess I'm as big a homer as you. But we already knew that.

**Lobodawg92** · 01-14-2009

Originally Posted by Roob

Early results with the first 28 votes in place, reveal:

86% of the voters believe that UNM will win 10 or more conference games.

93% believe UNM finishes with 9 or more conference wins.

7% believe that Lobos finish an even .500 in league play. Pomeroy doesn't have a lot of supporters on this site.

I would be really disappointed if we don't win at least 9, and I frankly expect 10 or 11. Why? Not so much based on our play so far, but based a lot on our kids and our coaches. I have seen it happen over and over, good kids, good coaches, they start coming together, and they start winning and playing well as March approaches. I think the coach will keep working with fundamentals, and the guys will figure out the system and their own abilities as a team. Either way, I support them, but let's hope I'm a happy camper in Vegas!

**Mark** · 01-14-2009

10 and 6. Dont know how but this is what I think will happen.

**Garishwolf** · 01-14-2009

AfTER seeing tonight's MWC results,,,,,,,,I KNOW WE CAN BAT EM ALL, Saturday will be the big start.

NOW,,,,,,anyone , the MWC is up inthe air,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,OUR'S for the taking,,,,,,,yes.,

**Bret** · 01-15-2009

Realistically 9-7 would be a pretty good year considering the skill of the other teams in conference and the amount of freshman minutes we have on the floor.

**ArkansasLobo** · 01-15-2009

11-5 NC2A bound

**Loboexpat** · 03-07-2009

bump

**loborick** · 03-07-2009

Originally Posted by LoboGator

Undefeated! Oh, wait too late for that.

I picked 12-4. Prove me wrong Lobos, go 13-3!

Gator, if you send me some numbers, I'll go out and buy a lottery ticket!

**2inchvert** · 03-07-2009

I voted 12-4, but I thought the wins/losses would come in slightly different places.

**Mark** · 03-07-2009

Im pulling up the poll and going to post everyone who voted 12-4

**pjamj** · 03-07-2009

Originally Posted by RedPitSea

Im pulling up the poll and going to post everyone who voted 12-4

Cool! Thanks for bumping this up!

**Mark** · 03-07-2009

12-4 2inchvert chardeman Gonzlobo Kent_Brockman lbc7 LoboGator Maxwell58 OzLobo Stratosphere Wolfen1

**Mark** · 03-07-2009

and of course Garish. He was the only one who voted for,

13-3 Garishwolf

**pjamj** · 03-07-2009

Originally Posted by Loboexpat

bump

Thanks Loboexpat!

What is great is to read all the comments and predictions. Lobo fans are pretty realistic for the most part.

Glad the Lobos exceeded most peoples expectations and here's to hoping they continue!

**Kent_Brockman** · 03-07-2009

Please take my name off that list. I did not originally vote on this thread. I just voted on it not that long ago.

I'm ready to be groaned at for the first time. Fire away.

**Mark** · 03-07-2009

Originally Posted by Kent_Brockman

Please take my name off that list. I did not originally vote on this thread. I just voted on it not that long ago.

I'm ready to be groaned at for the first time. Fire away.

Ahh, good man. Never lie on Sundays!

**2inchvert** · 03-07-2009

Originally Posted by RedPitSea

and of course Garish. He was the only one who voted for,

13-3 Garishwolf

Garish, you are the man! Only the brave stand alone.

**Wolfen1** · 03-07-2009

I remember when RPS was talking about his ski trip and I said I thought the Bo's were gonna go 12-4 everybody thought I was too optimistic, but I didn't get in on this poll. When did you go on trip RPS, tried to find that thread earlier and couldn't find where it was buried.

**Loboexpat** · 03-07-2009

I voted 9-7. Too many up and down games at the time. Glad they proved me wrong and props to the optimists.

**wallyhopp** · 03-07-2009

I voted 10-6 for some reason. I think a relative was on my computer voting in these polls. i dont reemeber that

**Mark** · 03-07-2009

Originally Posted by Wolfen1

I remember when RPS was talking about his ski trip and I said I thought the Bo's were gonna go 12-4 everybody thought I was too optimistic, but I didn't get in on this poll. When did you go on trip RPS, tried to find that thread earlier and couldn't find where it was buried.

I was up there for the TCU game when we played them there.

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