Friday 26 February 2010 BLOO'S... err, STEVE'S Incredibly Insightful and Cogent View of the MWC game at BYU!
#10/#12 New Mexico (26-3, 12-2 in the MWC [1st place]) @ Brigham Young (26-3, 11-2 in the MWC [2nd place])UNM road record (9-2, 1-0 neutral, 6-1 in MWC); BYU home record (15-0, 7-0 in MWC) Last games: New Mexico- won 72-66 at Colorado State (2/23); Brigham Young- won 82-68 vs. San Diego State (2/24). What you may not know: ∆-One of these teams will be off to a school-record 27-3 start after Saturday’s game. UNM would set both a school- and MWC records for their 13th straight win in conference, their 7th consecutive win on the road in conference, and seven road wins period will also be a conference record. Best of all, a win Saturday and the Lobos are the #1 seed in the MWC Tournament, guaranteed no worse than tied for first in the regular season. ∆-A sweep over BYU would be New Mexico’s first since the 2000 season. ∆-The comparisons with this season and the last outright regular conference season champion Lobos (1993-94) are ominous. That year, the Lobos, having been picked to finish fifth in the league, won the second-to-last regular season game on the road in Provo, snapping the Cougars 20 game home court winning streak (this year it’s at 21), and giving the Lobos the crown. That season, as with this one, it had been sixteen years since the last time the Lobos won a regular season conference title. It was also the first triumph in Provo for the Lobos in 9 seasons; this year if the Lobos were to win, it would be their first win there in 10. And finally, the 1993-94 Lobos started the same five all season long, which has not been done since then, but this season’s starting five has started all 29 games so far. Spin the slotsHere is the fifteenth of hopefully 19 looks at the conference portion of the 2009-2010 Lobos' schedule. As you might remember, I am straightening out my life and I found religion at the end of the Air Force game, and next thing you know- MORE MIRACLES! And I didn’t mean the win in Ft. Collins! You won’t believe it if I told you, but the miracles just never cease around here, and Steve the Sock Puppet has reappeared, just when I thought a massive dust mite had taken him out underneath one of the couches. Just my luck, eh? Never at a loss for words, Steve says he’s been praying for my Views to actually make any sense. Isn’t he a riot? Just when I’m about to offer to drive him to an impromptu play date on one of our freeways, he reminds me that game time is getting closer, and tells me I should stop playing around unless I want him to write this- yeah, like he could do that! Seriously, a ride up the tram might be in order... are they still open air trams? Wait... Steve! Is that a mallet in your hand, err, my hand... in your mouth? Steve! What are you dooooooiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnngggg? ----------------------------------------- Hello Lobo fans, yuck yuck! My name is Steve the Sock Puppet. Bloo is a little... uh, how shall I put this- under the sofa right now. He’s very tired, yeah... tired! So he ASKED me... Steve, would you finish my write-y thing-y? And I said yeah. So yeah. So he pulls this lever here and reads the symbols... how hard can that be?    Between you and me, this is what takes him so long writing these things. He never knows what these symbols really mean- you should see the look on his face! He calls frantically looking for anyone who will help him decipher these things... to tell you the truth, they don’t make a lot of sense to me either. If I had to guess, I’d say: 1. The first image is a clock. This probably means that Bloo will come to at 4:00 and miss tomorrow’s game. Or he’ll wake up at Ridiculous O’Clock in the morning and ask me what happened. I’ll tell him I don’t know. He’ll look at me suspiciously and I’ll remind him I’m just a sock. Actually, Coach Alford likes to keep track of the game in increments of four minutes. About then there’ll be these “media timeouts”. Not exactly every four minutes, but pretty close. Anyway, he’ll want to win as many of these “mini-games” as he can. Me? I think the first and the last one of each half will be critical in this game. Don’t let BYU go on one of their runs, especially during one of these times. SDSU let BYU go on one of those runs before halftime, and BYU had a four-possession lead going into the half of a game that was really close for the first 15 minutes. Win these four four-minute battles and you’re in good shape. 2. This is Bloo’s family. If you haven’t guessed, he’s a stick figure. Isn’t that thrilling? Wouldn’t you like to visit him? I think he’d make a fascinating study over at the zoo or the Natural History museum. Really, though, is this about BYU being tall? Is it about throwing the ball into the post? Is this slot machine really always this vague? Is it trying to say the transition game is a key to this game? What a lame machine you are, you old, special slot machine! BYU is the best transition team on the planet. Maybe in history. Better than the Harlem Globetrotters, or the Los Angeles Lakers in the 80’s, I guess. What do I know? I’m a sock. Anyway, there’s getting back on defense, and there’s getting back on defense asleep, and so I’m going to set the alarm for 4:00... no, wait, that’s the first one. UNM needs to get back and stop BYU from running- did I say that? That means take good shots, make good shots, and run like crazy because you know BYU will. Limit these opportunities and that’s a good thing. Make some of your own opportunities in transition, and that’s gravy. I have a gravy stain on my left cheek. Did Bloo mention that to you? 3. Bloo thinks he’s brilliant, but any schlep with a magic kit can fool him. I like to play shell games with him and watch his eyes cross and go back into his head and stuff. Fun times! Seriously, though, Tavernari might hit a shot or two, or Hawes might get off a bit, or Emery might get a steal or two... you have to make sure though that Fredette is working and taking contested shots because he’s the pea under the shell that you need to keep track of. The others are just decoys. Empty shells. They’re not going to beat you on their own, but if Fredette is on, they will help drive you nuts. Nuts- get it? Dairese was up for the challenge last time- this could be the key to the game. Ready, Dairese? Steve's take:Did you know Bloo lost me last month on purpose? He says I slipped into the rinse cycle, but how do you slip when you don’t have any legs? And who do you think allows the dust mites to grow to the size of rats under the couches? Don’t believe anything he says... ANYTHING! Stick with me, folks! I can write this column better than he can. You want a Lobo victory? OK, but it’s going to take concentration, a double-double from Hobson, getting back on defense, making free throws, getting more than their share of the boards, some timely threes by McDonald, limiting transition, coupons, relatively odor-free road uniforms, a recipe for fish, Dairese Gary wearing out BYU guards trying to guard him, AJ Hardeman and Will Brown staying out of foul trouble, ankle tape, fresh biscuits, Ro getting into every line on the stat sheet, bench-play, Fenton and Adams not playing like freshman, ten paperclips, an old newspaper, Curtis giving whatever he’s capable of giving, timely threes, and fresh eggs. See? I know what I’m doing. I say:
#10/12 UNM 83, #13/11 BYU 79.Oh, and that’s TACO NOM!
RedPitSea on Friday 26 February 2010 - 19:24:22 Comments are turned off for this item
Monday 22 February 2010 BLOO'S Incredibly Insightful and Cogent View of the MWC game at CSU!
#10/#12 New Mexico (25-3, 11-2 in the MWC [1st place])
@
Colorado State (15-11, 6-6 in the MWC [5th place])
UNM road record (8-2, 1-0 neutral, 5-1 in MWC); CSU home record (10-3, 3-3 in MWC)
Last games: New Mexico- won 59-56 vs. Air Force (2/20); Colorado State- lost 70-39 vs. Nevada-Las Vegas (2/20).
What you may not know: Not only would a victory over Colorado State mean the Lobos would break a team record for consecutive wins in conference play (12- breaking the record they just set vs. AFA), the streak of 12 games would tie a MWC record as well. Utah won 12 straight games in 2004-05.
A victory in Ft. Collins would be the Lobos’ 9th road victory, which would set another school record, breaking the record of 8 held by several teams, most recently the 2007-08 squad (also the 1972-73 team, the 1977-78 team, and the 1995-96 team. The ‘72-‘73 team and the ‘77-‘78 team both won WAC championships; the ‘95-‘96 team won the WAC tournament.) It would mean that the Lobos had won for a school record 10th time away from home, and it would also be a school record sixth straight win in road conference games.
Spin the slots
Here is the fourteenth of hopefully 19 looks at the conference portion of the 2009-2010 Lobos' schedule. Well, I am just getting back from a third straight day of confessionals, and let me tell you, it sure does feel good to get some things off my chest and admit that prayers can be answered. I don’t mind saying that I hadn’t been to confession in quite some time; in fact, I don’t know if you would consider my divine relationship very close at all. However, with 26 seconds left in Saturday’s game, you better believe I was praying my nervous rear end off!
Friends, if my new found holy relationship has taught me anything, it is that I will NEVER- and I mean NEVER- take an opponent of the Lobos for granted again! I’ve said 10 Hail Mary’s and 10 Our Father’s and I’ve even said 10 Half-Court Buzzer Beaters and 10 Last Second Free Throws. Are you kidding me, I am taking a rosary with me every time I see the Lobos live or on the television- you better believe it!
Speaking of believing, I believe our mighty slot machine told you the Lobos better not sleep on the job (several Lobos got caught snoozing and gave up backdoors) and that they need to run whenever possible (ZERO fast break points) and that they needed to guard against overconfidence (I take that one on the chin for the Lobos)... so you better hope we’re all paying attention when... HEY! Is that the Virgin Mary that just plopped out of my grape jelly squeezable plastic jar onto the peanut butter side of my PB&J?
Anyway, while I’m on hold with the folks at Ripley’s Believe It Or Not, I might as well give a pull of that special, old slot machine:
  
I asked the Ripley’s folks and they all find it hard to believe that these images mean anything significant relative to everyday living, but I can best estimate that the symbols mean this:
1. If I had only put a dime in this machine for every time I pulled it, I might have saved enough dimes to send myself to Vegas. Or they might all just be stuck in the machine, since I don’t know how to open the thing up anyway.
Actually, there is marked difference in the styles of these two teams. The Lobos average nearly 15 assists, while the Rams average just over 10. The last time these two teams played, the Lobos had 18 assists, which is not their season high (24 is), and they have had 18+ assists six times (4 20+ assist games); Colorado State has had 18 assists once all season. They don’t seem to like to share the ball, which makes total sense, as it is obviously what other teams expect them to do. If CSU executes this strategy to perfection, not sharing the ball at all, expect the Lobos to be standing around in awe, and expect Ripley’s Believe It Or Not to be on hand and hand a plaque out to CSU, because how could you share the ball less than not sharing the ball at all?
I, for one, will not underestimate the Rams’ ability to be totally selfish and despite the fact that they are 5-10 when they record less assists than their opponent, I will not overlook this absolutely essential aspect of their master plan to beat the Lobos.
2. OK, so I get a little angry when things don’t go my way. I get it. Anger management classes, before someone gets hurt or I have an aneurism. I can even spot Jack Nicholson in a crowd before 98% of the average Joes, so I won’t fall for him being my counselor like Adam Sandler did.
Really, though, the challenge to keeping one’s head is to have a short memory. If something goes wrong, don’t sweat it- just forget it! It works for defensive backs in football, and it can work in basketball, too! You blow an assignment, don’t spend the next seven possessions worrying about it, because chances are you’re sitting on the bench after blowing six more assignments and giving up a dozen points.
The challenge with Colorado State is contesting their shots. If they are on, they win. CSU is 12-0 when outshooting its opponents, so it is imperative that they don’t do what they did to Wyoming earlier this month and go 10-15 from outside the arc. Nobody wins when other teams do that. Hand in the face, make them take tough shot after tough shot. If they make it, don’t get angry.
I fully expect (and will not underestimate) CSU to try to make UNM mad. Mad players make mistakes. Mad players foul out. Nobody likes a mad player. Don’t be a mad player, Lobos! Keep your heads in the game!
3. I have been on hold with Ripley’s long enough to paint my entire house. It is probably best that I didn’t try, however, because I am a sloppy painter, and there would probably be more paint on the furniture and carpet than paint on the walls. Yuck! What a mess! (No, really I said I didn’t paint while I was waiting!)
Seriously, though, the place where this game will be won or lost is in the paint. Control the paint, and... oh, no you don’t, Colorado State! You sneaky little devils! You think because UNM outrebounded you by 18 boards last time, they’re going to be cocky and expect to win the battle of the boards. You think that because the Lobos controlled CSU’s inside game and held Ogide and Franklin to 8 combined points, they’ll just automatically assume they will again. Nevermind that you scored just 6 points in the paint against UNLV... oh, I’m ON to you, Rammies! You WANT us to believe that your interior game is worse than the Brady Bunch’s interior decorator! You can’t fool me! I’m on to you, CSU!
I will NOT underestimate you...
Bloo's take:
Colorado State rolled into Albuquerque before the Lobos went to Ft. Collins last year the same way the schedule has them arranged this year. Last year, in The Pit, the Lobos controlled the Rams and came away with an 18-point victory. Then they went up north for their return visit, and they nearly had their heads handed to them. Daniel Faris had to throw one over his head to tie it with less than a second, and it took double-OT to solve the Rams and get a two-point victory.
Flash forward to this season. Hmm, an 18-point victory in the game in Albuquerque... yeah, we’ll have no problems in Ft. Collins, folks. Bet your paychecks, your houses, your children’s college funds. I know a dupe when I see one, and I’m not falling for it- not for a second time from a second team from Colorado!
I think the Lobos need to stay wary, stay alert, and watch that ridiculous floor for wire traps. I think there may be Greek Sirens in the Green section... err, student section at Moby. There will be flat spots in the floorboards, and maybe even Eric Curry will be scheduled to referee this game. Don’t fall for ANYTHING, Lobos! Keep this game as your focus!
Despite all the trappings and pitfalls that are no doubt being laid before them, I say: #10 UNM 69, CSU 61.
RedPitSea on Monday 22 February 2010 - 20:03:48 Comments are turned off for this item
Thursday 18 February 2010 Lobos Bowl Over the Cowboys
 It wasn’t a perfect 300, but it was darn close to one tonight as the Lobos dismantled the Cowboys 83-61 in a game that marked a milestone 300th D1 win for Coach Alford. The game wasn’t as close as the score indicates as the Lobos jumped on Wyoming early and often on their way to an 11-0 lead at the 15:39 mark. The Lobos led this one from start to finish, stretching their lead to as much as 19 (37-18) in the first half and to as much as 31 (69-38) in the second half. The Lobo bench contributed to the cause with substantial minutes and points tonight. Every Lobo player played double digit minutes with the exception of Chad Adams who played 9 minutes and every player scored. It was one of those fun games where everybody plays and there’s a ton of highlight plays featuring lots of dunks and no-look assists for an easy layup or dunk. Though Coach Alford enjoys watching the players have fun, he wants to see them have fun if they work hard and play smart in the process. Work, be smart and then have fun, that is coach Alford’s mantra. Unfortunately the Lobos started having fun without being smart or working hard during a stretch in the 1st half. Play got really sloppy when Hobson and then Garth attempted alley oop passes for dunks on consecutive possessions with the Lobos up by a 16-8 score, both attempts going awry much to coach Alford’s chagrin. Coach Alford read his team the riot act at the next timeout and the Lobos responded by steadily increasing their lead on the way to a 37-20 halftime advantage. To be sure this Wyoming team was simply overmatched tonight. The Lobo team was simply too strong, too fast, and played together too well for Wyoming to keep up. On top of that the Lobos played tenacious defense, especially to start the game, which really put Wyoming in a hole that they were unable to recover from. On their first 7 possessions, the Cowboys managed 4 turnovers and 3 weak shots, one of them an airball, that basically sealed their fate. The Lobos early defensive success fired up the Pit crowd which had started the game in a subdued mood. The Cowboy players appeared to be like the proverbial deer in the headlights as they struggled to deal with the tremendous pressure applied by the players and the tremendous noise applied by the Lobo fans. The Lobos were led by Darington Hobson’s 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists. Hobson went 0 for 2 from three point range, but from 2 point range he was 9 of 11 for yet another incredible performance that has become almost routine for him in the past 4 games. It was Darington’s 4th consecutive and 9th overall double double of the year. In addition to playing effectively, Darington also entertained the crowd with an incredible no look behind the back pass to Phillip McDonald, garnering a huge reaction from the Pit crowd. Phil McDonald and Roman Martinez scored 14 and 13 points, respectively to round out the list of double digit scorers. Overall the Lobos finished with 23 assists and only 8 turnovers, continuing to execute what coach Alford described as their staple of hard work and unselfishness. Despite the coast to coast, dominating win, coach Alford was still lighting into his team as late as two minutes remaining in the game. He is well known for breaking the game into 4 minute increments, his goal being to win each of those increments. He was not satisfied that the Lobos were losing the final 4 minute segment tonight. His drive to coach a perfect game was never more apparent than in win number 300 tonight.
RedPitSea on Thursday 18 February 2010 - 18:00:28 Comments are turned off for this item
Saturday 13 February 2010 BLOO'S Incredibly Insightful and Cogent View of the MWC game at Utah!
The skinny
Game #11
 VS.  #15/#19 UNM (22-3, 8-2 [1st place]) @ Utah (11-12, 4-5 [6th place])UNM road record (7-2; 1-0 neutral, 4-1 in MWC); Utah home record (7-6, 2-2 in MWC) Last games: UNM- won 76-66 at UNLV (2/10); Utah- won 64-55 at TCU (2/10). What you may not know: With Steve Alford’s next win in Salt Lake City, he becomes the first head man in UNM history to win twice in on the Ute’s floor. Easier said than done- like Alford, Dave Bliss also won in his first try visiting Utah, and then went 0-10 trying to win his second game there. UNM is 6-52 all-time in SLC. Utah center David Foster already has the Utes’ record for blocks in a season with 96, eclipsing Luke Neville’s 92, set last season. UNM’s 8 game conference winning streak is tied for their second longest in school history (1997-98). The school record is 10, set by the 1977-1978 team that won their first 10. That streak ended with a loss to Utah in Salt Lake City. Spin the slotsHere is the eleventh of hopefully 19 looks at the conference portion of the 2009-2010 Lobos' schedule. Many view Saturday’s game with Utah as a sort of trap game, but not me. I have decreed it proverbial kick a dog while it’s down game, although by the time I finish this View, someone will have alerted PETA, who will be closing in on me shortly afterwards. It’s just that this dog has been especially rude to us for the last... oh, almost 60 years, kind of like the nemesis of a long-time postman, so the raunchy treatment while the dog is down is long overdue. Or think of him as the dog that kicks the crap out of Wile E. Coyote each time he tries to score a sheep from the time they both clock in until quitting time. After a while, it’s just not fair, and nobody minds if the cartoon dog gets his, right? Wile E. can drop an Acme hole on that old sheepdog, and then pummel him where PETA can’t watch. It’ll be our little secret. Speaking of secrets, why this old, special slot machine showed up on my doorstep is a mystery, though I probably shouldn’t sock a gift horse in the mouth, and it’s my lot to give it another spin, so here we go!    I called the local Animal Humane Society, and after we reviewed the symbols on the slot machine, we’ve come to the agreement that we shouldn’t poke a pig in a poke with a stick, and guessing what these symbols mean is like coming to consensus interpreting the Rorschach images. (They’re all flies after someone went KPAO on them anyway.) However, in regards to this Saturday’s game, I can best interpret them to mean this: 1. People with big heads probably shouldn’t try to blend in with a crowd if someone is looking for them. Like PETA. Actually, though, the Lobos need guard against that proverbial trap game and go into this game as if it is already a W. While Utah has a sub .500 record both overall and in the MWC, they are .815 in the Jon M. Hunstman Center. The fact remains the Utes can block shots, its shooters can get hot, and even a blind squirrel can run smack into a tree... err, I mean a blind squirrel can get a nut. The Lobos need to have their foot constantly on the accelerator, even if it means rodent roadkill is left in their wake. 2. My animal idioms are being taken literally, and PETA has hedged me in since I didn’t run for it when I had the chance. Really, though, the Lobos played some tremendous defense against the Rebels, but that intensity needs to continue, if not increase, on Saturday against the Utes. A big team wants to run amok in the paint, and hopes that it can hit from the outside to keep you from packing it in inside too much. Hedging those screens to keep a quick release, like the one Marshall Henderson has, from going off will also help keep that inside game at bay. They’re interconnected that way. Keep a hand in the face of the shooter, and it could be a long day for the home team. 3. I think kicking a dog when it’s down is such a good idea, I’m going to head to the dog park tomorrow and kick everyone’s dog there... and then run like hell. Or, this could mean that not only are the Utes down this year, but the first time these two teams met, the Utes got a spanking, which is what my dog is going to get the next time she gets into the trash while I’m writing one of these Views! In a game that is 90% mental (the other half is physical), why keep a dog and bark yourself, a bird squashed in your hand is worth two eggs in a frying pan... err, a bird in hand is worth two in a bush... No need to re-invent the wheel, what worked in Albuquerque should work here in Salt Lake... attack the rim, keep their bigs off balance on both ends of the floor, and KICK THIS DOG WHILE IT’S DOWN! Bloo's take:Next the Lobos go from one of the most hostile environments outside of The Pit into one of the most historically unfriendly. It is ridiculous to even think about the lack of success the Lobos have experienced in Salt Lake City. Talk about treating us like dogs. The best thing that can be said going into this game, besides the fact that Utah is only 7-6 in this building, and besides the fact that the Colorado State Rams came away with a 15 point win in this building at the beginning of the month, is that these Lobos don’t really know about the lack of success the Lobos have had here through the years. (And don’t go telling them, either.) Throw out Roman’s 1-2 record here, and almost everyone else is 1-1, 0-1, or has never been here. All year long, the Lobos have done things they should not be able to do for the youth they possess. It follows that they should not find the Huntsman intimidating as an experienced Lobo team might. They don’t know any better (that they shouldn’t be able to win here), and let’s keep it that way. Let’s wolf down these Utes, and, oh, in case you were wondering, no animals were harmed in the writing of this View:
#15 UNM 71, Utah 56.
RedPitSea on Saturday 13 February 2010 - 17:48:25 Comments are turned off for this item
Lobo Football Review/Preview - Parts 1, 2, & 3
Quote:
Winning is not a sometime thing; it’s an all the time thing. You don’t win once in a while; you don’t do things right once in a while; you do them right all the time. Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing...
Every time a football player goes to apply his trade he’s got to play from the ground up – from the soles of his feet right up to his head…If you’re lucky enough to find a guy with a lot of head and a lot of heart, he’s never going to come off the field second.
And in truth, I’ve never known a man worth his salt who in the long run, deep down in his heart, didn’t appreciate the grind, the discipline. There is something in good men that really yearns for discipline and the harsh reality of head to head combat…I firmly believe that any man’s finest hour – his greatest fulfillment to all he holds hear – is that moment when he has to work his heart out in a good cause and he’s exhausted on the field of battle – victorious.
------- Vince Lombardi |
In this Review/Preview, I want to return to a couple of themes that were on my mind during the season and are still relevant today. The first is a perspective on the season as a whole. The second is my view on the things that Lobos can do to improve their chances of winning games next year. Sometimes, change is painful When a football program goes through as big of a change as UNM did – when the entire program is turned over – it often takes a step back before the rebuilding begins. We’ve seen this recently with several programs. Maybe one of the more striking examples was the tumultuous start to the Rodriguez era at Michigan. Not only were players defecting and his old school suing him, but the wins weren’t coming on the field and his vaunted spread option looked impotent at best. How bad was it? Perhaps some numbers will help put it in perspective. The year Rodriguez took over at Michigan, the total offense went from being 68th in the nation to 109th. Scoring offense went from the 63rd best in the nation to 99th. Even the defense was not immune to changes in scheme/philosophy and the results were similar: Total D went from 24th in the country to 67, and scoring D went from 23 to 84th. They went 3-9 that year.
This year their total offense is up to 58th best in the nation and scoring offense is 39th in the nation. Michigan finished 5-7. Perhaps could have done better but their young star QB was dealing with injuries and making some freshman mistakes toward the end of the season. Michigan isn’t the only program that has experienced this effect. When Arkansas changed from Houston Nutt’s program to Bobby Petrino’s, total O went from 17 to 49th in the nation, scoring offense went from 13 to 91st. Total defense went from 49 to 72 and scoring defense went from 54 to 94th. Colorado’s shift from Gary Barnett to Dan Hawkins (golden boy Boise State offensive guru)? Total O went from 88 to 102, scoring O from 78 to 107. Total D went from 41 to 66, scoring D dropped from 45 to 56. When Texas A&M was going away from Fran’s system to Sherman’s, their total O went from 58 to 78, scoring O dropped from 57 to 64. Total defense dropped from 83 to 115 and scoring defense went from 49 to 115 in the nation.
It doesn’t always happen, but sometimes change is painful. And now, a little sports nerdiness. Road to a Bowl? The Lobos finished 2009 averaging offensive scoring of 16.3 and defensive points given up of 35.9 per game. Not good numbers by any measure. You don’t have to be the sharpest knife in the drawer to know that those numbers will not yield many wins. In fact, if we take a page out of Sabermetrics we might predict that those averages would yield about as many wins as the Lobos got in 2009 (using the “Pythagorean” method those averages yield a predicted 1.6 games in a 12 game season). Of course that’s fun but ultimately irrelevant number crunching. However, let’s go with it for one more exercise. How much do the Lobos need to improve to get bowl eligible (i.e., at least six wins)? That would take a ten point improvement on each side of the ball (26.3 scoring offense, 25.9 scoring defense yields a predicted 6.1 wins). Yes, this is a bit of superfluous number crunching; I am the first to admit that (and I’m a firm believer that sports like football and basketball aren’t amenable to the simplistic quantification used in Sabermetrics, but that’s another discussion). However, using this as a launching point for this discussion is not entirely off the wall. Scoring 26.3 and giving up 25.9 would have put UNM in the middle of the pack in 2009 (ranked in the 60s nationally). It also puts them within the range of teams that won 5 to 8 games on average in 2009. In other words, on the right track. Of course, I’d love to see the Lobos average 40 points, give up less than 10 per game, go undefeated and bust the BCS. But…baby steps. If nothing else, this gives us, the fans, something to chew on during the offseason.
Part 2...
In this installment of the Review/Preview, we'll take a look at the CSU game and how it stacked up to the first half of the season. I initially wanted to break down the last half of the season, but didn't have the time to do that. So then I was going to look at the last three games, but just had time to go over CSU. Just haven’t had the time, but here it is for what it’s worth.
Looking back, before we look forward I was looking at some highlights and going back over the game against CSU a few weeks ago to compare the numbers to the stats I compiled for the first half of the season. The objective was to see what went right, what areas saw the most improvement, and what still needed work. It got me thinking about quite a few things about this season as well as the immediate future of Lobo football. OK, now for some football. The Lobo rushing attack got on track in the CSU game. 30+ rushing attempts for nearly 200 yards. Kasey Carrier was the workhorse while Demond Dennis showed off the athleticism that makes him a potential home run threat going for 133 yards on just 7 carries. This included his awesome 3rd quarter 42 yard TD run. The Lobos are in 10 personnel (1 back, 0 tight ends), shotgun 3x1 set (3 wideouts on one side, one on the other). The play starts with some nice playside blocking as the Lobos get CSU’s front going one way which opened up a hole that Dennis sees, makes the cut back against the grain, jukes the safety, and finishes it off thanks to some more nice blocking downfield. Donovan Porterie deserves some kudos for his play during this game as well. He made plays with his feet and his arm. One of the highlight plays was his 2nd quarter touchdown pass to Quintell Solomon from the CSU 21. The Lobos have 20 personnel on the field (2 backs, 0 tight ends), shotgun 2x1 set. It appears to me that the Lobos are giving CSU a gun triple option look, but they’re going to play-action pass rather than run the ball. At the snap, Demond Dennis breaks right into the flat. Carrier fakes taking the handoff and stays in pass pro. The wideouts are running deep routes and Solomon is isolated on a corner, has inside position and Porterie hits him for the touchdown. Solomon has to adjust to the throw a bit but makes a nice grab. Two nice “highlight reel” plays that show how explosive this offense can be when it’s hitting on all cylinders. (If my descriptions do not do justice to the plays -which is highly likely - the Mtn’s highlights from the game can be found on their website). I (and others) noticed a few trends about last year’s squad that seemed to hold as of the middle of the season. These were things that contributed to their losses, some less obvious than others. I thought it would be useful to look at how the CSU game compared to the first half of the season. - Turnovers: You always want to win turnover margin which the Lobos rarely did but they also seemed to have backbreakers – such as turnovers that ended potential game tying drives or red zone interceptions or fumbles.
- Big Plays: the Lobos were giving up more, sometimes twice as many, big plays as they were getting. This is never a good thing. Offenses generally want to generate big plays during a game and defenses hate giving them up. A number I’ve seen is 8. Eight big plays on offense and limit or eliminate them on defense. Of course, I’m sure many coaches would say that they’ll take whatever it takes to win the game.
- Third downs: Once again, the Lobos were often upside down on third down conversions. By that I mean that they converted about 30% or fewer and allowed their opponents to convert 40% or more. A goal should be to invert those rates. Convert at least 40% on offense and allow 30% or fewer to opponents.
- Pass protection: The Lobo offensive line gave up 41 sacks in 2009 for an average of 3.49 per game. Only Colorado, Tulsa, Washington State, and Miami(Ohio) gave up more sacks in 2009. You have to be able to protect the quarterback, they’ve got to get the ball out in time, and in general giving up a lot of sacks has been indicative of bad offenses.
- Turnovers: +1 Donovan Porterie had a couple of picks, including the costly pick 6 to Oppenneer. However, the team got more than they gave away and that’s always a good thing.
- Big Plays: Lobos 6, Rams 5. Lobos made more big plays than the Rams. This was primarily in the rushing game. Which can be a good thing, but you’d like to see more big plays come out of the passing game. On the other side of the ball, the Lobos gave up more big plays in the rushing game than the passing game. This, in my opinion, is an area of concern. Particularly with the talent and experience the Lobos will be bringing back on the defensive front, I hope stopping the run and limiting or eliminating big plays is one of their priorities.
- Third downs: The good news, Lobos converted 40% + on third downs. The bad news, CSU converted 55.5%. Another defensive problem area that will need to be improved if the Lobos want to have more success in 2010.
- Pass protection: In the second half of the season the number of quarterback sacks given up by the Lobos decreased. With the exception of the BYU game, they did a much better job giving up just 3 to defensive powerhouse TCU. Not bad considering they were giving up 4 or more in the beginning of the season. Another indication is the ability to throw down the field.
Some more offensive numbers from the CSU game: Targets/Receptions
Rushing  Part 3... In this final installment, I'll take a brief look at the returning players and the Lobos 2010 non-conference opponents.
In Spring, A Young Man’s Thoughts Turn To…Football? The Lobos were a young team last year and will be relatively inexperienced again in 2010. The Lobos return 10 starters from last year’s team – five on offense, five on defense. That is the second fewest returning starters in the MWC and puts the Lobos in the top ten in the country for fewest returning starters. In fact, only Colorado State has fewer returning starters with 9 coming back in the MWC and only 3 teams in the country (including CSU) have fewer than 10 returning starters. While that does not bode well for having experience on the team, it opens the door for returning players as well as newcomers to make an immediate impact in 2010. As has been noted in recent news articles, the Lobos can not only draw on this year’s recruiting class but also key transfers. This might even bode well for some of the walk-ons that joined the 2009 Lobos. Returning players are broken down by position below (position, class, numbers based on the roster on GoLobos.com which have and can change). Returning Players(Pos: Number of players, Class[number per class]): Athlete: 1, SO Center: 1, JR Cornerback: 6, SO(4), JR(1), SR(1) Deep Snapper: 4, SO(3), JR(1) Defensive End: 3, JR(2), SR(1) Defensive Tackle: 5, SO(3), JR(2) Defensive Line: 5, SO(5) Fullback: 3, SO(2), SR(1) Kicker: 3, SO(1), JR(2) Linebacker: 10, SO(5), JR(3), SR(2) Offensive Guard: 4, SO(2), SR(2) Offensive Line: 1, SO Offensive Tackle: 7, SO(2), JR(3), SR(2) Punter: 2, SO(2) Quarterback:3, SO(1), JR(1), SR(1) Running Back: 7, SO(4), JR(1), SR(2) Safety: 5, SO(3), JR(1), SR(1) Tight End: 5, SO(5) Wide Receiver: 10, SO(6), JR(1), SR(3) 2009 Newcomers of note: Kasey Carrier: freshman that came on strong toward the end of the season at running back. Kasey gained a net 269 yards on 61 carries and 92 yards receiving. Demond Dennis: the talented freshman from Atlanta demonstrated his playmaking ability and versatility in 2009 despite being hampered by injury midway through the season. Demond gained a net 427 yards rushing, 133 yards receiving and 99 yards on kickoff returns. Peter Gardner: Lackawanna College transfer that helped anchor the defensive front. He recorded 13 solo tackles, 4 for a loss, 3 passes defended and 3 QB hurries in 2009. Evan Jacobsen: deep snapper that saw action in all games in 2009. Emmanuel McPhearson: freshman cornerback from DeMatha HS recorded 20 solo tackles and 1 INT in 2009. That’s four freshmen that had an immediate impact on last season’s team. Total game experience heading into 2010: 51 games. “The best thing about freshman…they become sophomores.” We’re looking for more good things from these guys as well as some of the 2010 newcomers. Other Notable Newcomers: I’m looking forward to seeing transfers Reggie Ellis and Ugo Uzodinma. What impact will they have on the defensive line? Spring Surprises: I’m also looking forward to seeing what Michael Scarlett brings to the receiving corps. Also, keep an eye on Tate Smith. On Van Tate’s Sports Office, Coach Locks said that he and the coaching staff are anxious to see what Tate can do at the quarterback position. An Early Look at 2010 Non-Conference Foes Oregon: The Lobos travel to Autzen Stadium for their first game of the 2010 season. Talk about being fed to the lions. Autzen is one of the toughest venues in the country for opposing teams and Oregon will be suiting up a talented team, much of which is intact from their 2009 season. The Ducks return 18 starters from a team that started with a disastrous first game at Boise State but finished 2009 strong and at the top of the PAC-10 (10-3). In addition to this talented group, Oregon is bringing in a highly regarded recruiting class. Notable returners: LeMichael James, 1546 net rushing yards and 14 TDs in 2009. Notable newcomers: Ricky Heimuli (Rivals 4 star, DT) and speedster Lache Seastrunk (Rivals 5 star, RB). Two highly touted recruits whose services were sought after by many top programs. There was some debate as to whether Heimuli would stay in his home state of Utah, but he obviously decided to go elsewhere. Texas Tech: After traveling to the grinder of the Northwest, the Lobos come home to the cold comfort of having to face Texas Tech. A troubled team in 2009, Texas Tech is no longer directed by the coach Lobo fans loved to hate. Mike Leach was dismissed and Tommy Tuberville has been hired. The word is that Texas Tech would keep everything the same, including Leach’s version of the Airraid offense. They return 15 starters from 2009. TTech finished 9-4 in 2009. Texas Tech is 2-1 at University Stadium since the 1990s. Notable returners: Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield. The two quarterbacks the Lobos faced in 2009. The Lobo defense knocked Potts out of the game only to find out that Tech had a hotshot QB from Pflugerville, Texas waiting in the wings. There seemed to be a quarterback controversy brewing behind the scenes and it will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Notable newcomers: Jackson Richards (Rivals 4-star, DE). 6-5, 240 and 4.8 40. He’s an explosive player that is touted as being ready from day one to start wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. He’s a talented rusher that can also run down ball carriers in pursuit. UTEP: The Miners return 12 starters to a team that struggled a bit in2009 with a 4-8 final record. 2010 will be Mike Price’s 7th season at UTEP, where he’s compiled a 34-38 record. After going 8-4 his first two seasons, Price hasn’t had a winning season since. Hopefully, the Lobos can help them continue that trend next season. Notable returners: Donald Buckram, one of the best backs in the country according to some sources. He rushed for 1594 net yards and 18 TDs in 2009. Notable newcomers: Javia Hall. One of the top QBs in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, Hall commanded an offense on one of the state’s most talented high school clubs. He threw for 2600 yards and 33 TDs in 2009. New Mexico State: NMSU went 3-10 in DeWayne Walker’s first season as head coach including a comeback win over the Lobos at University Stadium. Despite rumors to the contrary, he didn’t bolt to go be with Peter Carrol in Seattle. The Lobos travel to Aggie Memorial Stadium in 2010 where they are 5-2 in the last seven games. Notable returners: Donte Savage, the Junior Defensive End lead the Aggies in Tackles for Loss and was second on the team in sacks. He could benefit from the Aggies signing of a solid tackle. Notable newcomers: David Mahoney (Rival 3-star, JC DT). A big beast of a defensive tackle that is scouted as a good pass rusher from the tackle position. He’s listed at 285 lbs. but looks like he easily is 300+. Could be a two gap and run plugger. Going 2-2 to start 2010 would be very respectable outing for the Lobos.
By,
LoboExpat
RedPitSea on Saturday 13 February 2010 - 17:47:21 Comments are turned off for this item
BLOO'S Incredibly Insightful and Cogent View of the MWC game at UNLV
The skinny
Game #10
VS. 
#15/#19 UNM (21-3, 7-2 [tied for 1st place with BYU and UNLV])
@
#23/#25 UNLV (19-4, 7-2 [tied for 1st place with BYU and UNM])UNM road record (6-2; 1-0 neutral, 3-1 in MWC); UNLV home record (10-2, 4-1 in MWC) Last games: UNM- won 88-86 in OT vs. SDSU (2/6); UNLV- won 88-74 vs. BYU (2/6). What you may not know: The last time the UNLV Rebels were ranked and hosted another ranked team in the regular season, it was January 23, 1993. The #15 Rebels hosted the #18 Georgetown Hoyas. The last time a ranked Rebels squad hosted another ranked conference foe was in 1991, when the top-ranked Rebels defeated #12 NMSU. And the last time a ranked Rebel squad met a ranked Lobo squad, it was January 17, 1978 and #20 UNM came away with a 89-76 win over 16th UNLV. It was the second win in 10 days for the Lobos over the Rebels, having just snapped the 72 game home winning streak of Tarkanian’s squad. Speaking of winning streaks, UNM’s longest ever MWC regular season winning streak grew to 7 games with its win over SDSU Saturday. Spin the slotsHere is the tenth of hopefully 19 looks at the conference portion of the 2009-2010 Lobos' schedule. Monday’s polls added some extra intrigue to the UNM 2010 Revenge Tour as the second of their two conference foes who saddled them with a loss out of the gates, the UNLV Rebels, reentered the polls ranked 23rd in the AP and 25th in the ESPN/Coaches. It’s gonna be a BATTLE in the Macarena! To prepare, I went to RU Ready to Rumble Surplus and got some supplies! I got Camouflage Mardis Gras face paint kit, a brass pinkie ring, a “How to Make Paper Warplanes and Numchucks” guidebook, a semi-automatic Nerf-n-Strike Longshot CS-6 assault rifle, and a case of 10 year shelf-life MREs. My porch light sensor is hotwired to my cell, or my automatic coffee maker- I wasn’t sure which wire was which, and I have two down pillows on either side of me. I am SET! As you can attest, I have never been more ready to give this old, special slot machine another spin, so here we go!    I asked the few, the proud members of a local bridge club, and we are all in agreement that none of this correlates to anything relevant in anyone’s life, living or dead. However, in regards to this Wednesday’s game, I can best interpret them to mean this: 1. I should lock important documents and evidence that I was ever here in a safe. I smell fresh coffee, so they are probably right on my trail. Really, though, the Lobos need to value their possessions and keep the ball safe. I say this because they can almost bank on the Rebels doing the same. UNLV ranks first in the conference in turnover-to-assists at 1.5:1, which is actually up from their non-conference slate. With such a premium placed on the ball, the Lobos need to match UNLV’s efficiency. Easier said than done. Here are two more stats in which the Rebels rank first in the league: FG%, and FG% Defense. That’s right. They score on more shots than the other eight teams in the league, and they keep their opponents from scoring better than any other team in the league. That just doesn’t seem fair. Which is why possessions will need to be kept safe, lock and key. 2. I am expecting to cash in some really good deals on drive-thru Mexican food after Wednesday’s game. Actually, in the times these two teams played over the last year and a half, the Lobos have shot an abnormal 19% from three-point range against the Rebels. This could be because the Rebels pride themselves on extending their defense and challenging the three point shot. In basketball circles, this is called a high-risk, high-reward defensive strategy. The reward is teams that settle for shots beyond the 3 point circle end up shooting a low percentage. The risk is that teams guards will drive and create havoc by reaching the paint. Once you reach the paint, one of three things will generally happen. One, you reach the rack, score and/or get fouled; two, you draw a defender, which opens someone up on the wing and you kick it back out; or three, you settle for much higher percentage mid-range jump shot. It sounds so simple, and so... familiar. Do you recognize it? This is EXACTLY what the Rebels did to UNM the first time these teams played in the Pit in January. This is why Kendall Wallace was open time and time (and time, time, time, time and time) again. And, this is exactly what UNM started the game doing to UNLV, except that more often than not they were not finishing there. This strategy will work if the Lobos are patient, deliberate, and don’t abandon it if it doesn’t yield success every time out. Although- that option would be nice. 3. This third image can only mean that since most accidents occur within 1.4 miles from home, I should park my car 1.5 miles away from my house, and jog to my car before going to work or shopping. Or, this could mean that the chink in the Rebel’s armor is in their rebounding prowess. The Rebels are currently 6th in the conference in opponent rebounds allowed at just over 35 a game. The Lobos are averaging a gaudy 40.7 rebounds a game, including 13 offensive boards in their nine conference games to date. Continuing to crash the boards would certainly be one way to add some touches and gain extra shots, in case the Rebels are being their stingy selves. Bloo's take: So the Lobos will be taking the court in one of the more unfriendly environments they’ll face all year. There will be over 18,000 in the stands, and in a building where Steve Alford has yet to win (0-4). The Rebels are fresh off a dismantling of formerly all-by-their-lonesome-and- cruising -towards-a-MWC-title BYU Cougars. Things look grim for our heroes. Just then you realize that the Lobos have taken every challenge, and have usually come away from it victors, save for one week in early January, and another on the cusp of a much needed break. You might even realize that the Lobos started the last Rebel-Lobo tilt attacking the rim, and for whatever reason, not finishing, only to relegate themselves to some contested jumpers (and an uncontested air ball) that disallowed their last charge from reaching fruition and allowing the final margin to look rather lopsided. The Lobos still have unfinished business to attend to, and just as the Lobos found a way to reverse what SDSU had done so well against them in San Diego, the Lobos should be able to combat what ailed them in the first game against the Rebels. I say part two of the Revenge Tour 2010 is a similar success to that of part one:
#15 UNM 75, #23 UNLV 72.
RedPitSea on Saturday 13 February 2010 - 17:42:09 Comments are turned off for this item
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